Unexplained Drone Sightings Over Afghanistan and the Ongoing Geopolitical Intrigue
Recent developments in Afghanistan have once again brought the country's complex geopolitical situation into focus. Throughout October 2025, numerous reports have emerged from Afghan residents about unidentified drones flying over various provinces, raising concerns among analysts about regional security and international power struggles.
In particular, residents of Panjshir province reported sightings of mysterious aircraft patrolling the skies. According to local sources, these drones began their patrols on the morning of October 23 and continued into the afternoon. The aircraft were observed flying at very high altitudes, with their sounds barely audible, making identification difficult. The origin and purpose of these drones remain unclear, with no official statement from Taliban authorities, who control the region. Notably, the Taliban regime has been accused of turning Panjshir into a training ground for al-Qaeda and a safe haven for terrorist activities, further complicating the security landscape.
(Example
photo of a military drone)
A Region of Competing Powers
The drone activity comes amid intensifying competition among major powers — including China, the United States, Pakistan, and India — each maneuvering for influence over Afghanistan’s future. The country, long described as the “heart of Asia,” remains a critical corridor for energy transit, intelligence operations, and strategic leverage.
The Role of Turkey and Qatar
Additionally,
the geopolitical landscape also involves regional actors such as Qatar and Turkey. Under President Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey appears to provide
discreet support to the Taliban, similar to its backing of other Sunni
extremist groups worldwide. Erdoğan has increasingly aligned with Sunni
Islamist factions and taken part in international platforms that often counter
Shiite influence in the region. Despite his public portrayal of moderation,
Turkey’s political posture reflects a consistent sympathy toward Sunni
extremist movements, including the Taliban. At the same time, many Afghan
politicians opposed to the Taliban reside in Turkey, though their activities
remain restricted due to concerns about potential extradition and political
repression.
Qatar, on the other hand, maintains strong economic ties and is believed to be involved in various international activities, including smuggling and other illicit operations, which bolster Turkey’s economy. Without Qatar’s support and clandestine activities and networks, Turkey’s economy would face significant hardships.
Drones and the Shadow War
The recent wave of drone sightings adds another dimension to an already fragile security environment. Their presence underscores the opacity of Afghanistan’s current power dynamics, where no actor claims responsibility, and every move is open to speculation.
Some experts suggest the aircraft could belong to regional intelligence agencies monitoring Taliban activities. Others believe they may be part of ongoing counterterrorism missions involving foreign powers. Yet, in the absence of transparency, Afghanistan’s skies have once again become a theater of suspicion and intrigue.
Taliban–Pakistan Talks in Istanbul
Adding to regional tensions, a second round of three-day talks between the Taliban and Pakistan began on Saturday, October 25, in Istanbul, Turkey. Informed sources indicate that discussions will continue for an additional two days. Pakistani media reported that Pakistan’s delegation presented a “clear and firm position” regarding the threat posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The main focus of the talks includes enhancing security coordination, improving border cooperation, and developing a joint strategy to promote regional peace and stability. The Express Tribune, citing sources close to the negotiations, stated that the goal is to establish mechanisms that can reduce border security challenges and prevent terrorist activities.
(The
2,640-kilometer-long Durand Line, which divides the Pashtun population, was
established by the British in 1893.)
Sources in Kabul revealed that a six-member Taliban delegation, led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najib and including officials such as Suhail Shaheen, Anas Haqqani, Noor Ahmad Noor, Noor-ur-Rehman Nusrat, and Abdul Qahar Balkhi, participated in the discussions. On the Pakistani side, a seven-member delegation comprising diplomats and intelligence officials attended the closed-door talks at the Conrad Istanbul Hotel. Turkish police enforced strict security measures at the venue, but neither side nor the Turkish government has disclosed details of the agenda.
These negotiations follow a previous meeting between Taliban and Pakistani defense ministers in Qatar, which resulted in an agreement on a ceasefire. However, the specifics of this deal remain confidential. Pakistan has described the agreement as “confidential,” while the Taliban claim that the deal is not yet finalized and is not classified.
The US's Role in Afghanistan’s Ongoing Saga
The Taliban appear to be in deeper trouble than they are willing to acknowledge, caught in the midst of complex geopolitical maneuvering. Amid this turbulence, the United States continues to shape Afghanistan’s course through largely unofficial and opaque means. Notably, Zalmay Khalilzad — the chief negotiator of the Doha Agreement and former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan — has made his third known visit to Kabul since the fall of the Afghan republic and the withdrawal of U.S. forces four years ago. However, his return does not appear to be in an official diplomatic capacity, though it is believed to reflect behind-the-scenes coordination with Washington. Khalilzad is reportedly acting as an unofficial envoy, taking part in meetings on major energy projects, including the proposed TAPI pipeline, alongside influential regional partners such as the Saudi-based firm Delta International. Observers note that his engagements seem aligned with efforts to strengthen Pashtun and Sunni representation, groups with which both Khalilzad and the Taliban identify. Both the Taliban and Khalilzad are believed to adhere to the Wahhabi-influenced Deobandi branch of Sunni Islam.
His presence in Kabul, which took place around October 22, 2025, has sparked questions about the boundary between unofficial diplomacy, personal lobbying, and efforts to restore the legitimacy of a regime that remains unrecognized internationally. Official reports from the office of Taliban Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Abdul Ghani Baradar, indicate that Khalilzad attended a formal meeting on October 24 with Taliban officials and representatives of Delta International, discussing investments in Afghanistan’s oil and gas sectors. Despite his unofficial status, Khalilzad was received with protocol usually reserved for official representatives—a sign of his continued influence and access within Taliban circles.
Khalilzad’s involvement in energy projects traces back to the 1990s when he advised American oil companies like Unocal and played a key role in the CentGas consortium, aimed at transporting Turkmen gas through Afghanistan to Pakistan. Although those plans failed, recent developments suggest he is now engaged in similar regional energy negotiations, this time alongside the Taliban and Gulf actors, in a geopolitical landscape that he helped shape decades ago.
Since the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Khalilzad has maintained contact with Taliban leaders, traveling to Kabul in 2022 and 2023, ostensibly to facilitate the release of American citizens and Afghan allies. His activities raise questions about whether he represents specific interests, operates with US government tacit approval, or is pursuing personal ambitions to revive the Doha Agreement’s legacy.
The Energy and Geopolitical Stakes: TAPI and Beyond
The Taliban’s return has revitalized interest in regional energy projects like the TAPI pipeline, which aims to transport Turkmen gas through Afghanistan to India. The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with participation of the Asian Development Bank. Launched in 2008, the project has faced numerous obstacles—security challenges, regional rivalries, and questions of legitimacy. The involvement of Khalilzad and regional actors suggests a possible shift toward a new energy alliance that could bypass Western influence.
(Afghanistan’s
geopolitical significance is evident, often being referred to as the “heart of
Central Asia.”)However, the success of TAPI remains uncertain. The project requires security stability, political legitimacy, adherence to international standards, and regional cooperation—conditions that are largely absent in the current environment. Afghanistan’s internal instability, coupled with international rejection of the Taliban regime, complicates prospects for a breakthrough.
A Fragile Balance of Power
Afghanistan’s geography has long made it a prize for competing powers. Its position at the crossroads of Central and South Asia ensures that any shift in its internal dynamics has far-reaching consequences. The emerging alignment between Taliban officials, Gulf investors, and figures like Khalilzad could represent an attempt to build a new political-economic axis — one that bypasses traditional Western and Russian spheres of influence.
But the risks are substantial. Empowering the Taliban without political reform risks solidifying authoritarian control and undermining regional stability. Economic deals pursued in the shadows may offer short-term benefits while worsening Afghanistan’s long-term fragility.
The Roots of Afghanistan’s Collapse
Pakistan’s role in the Taliban’s resurgence is indisputable. Yet, responsibility for Afghanistan’s collapse also lies with segments of the Afghan elite — particularly among Pashtun figures in the diaspora who actively lobbied for the Taliban’s return to power. Among them, Zalmay Khalilzad stands out as both a key architect and a beneficiary of the current political reality.
Afghanistan’s fall in August 2021 stemmed from a combination of interconnected failures:
- Pakistan’s long-term patronage of the Pashtun Taliban and its continued use of the group as a strategic proxy.
- Lobbying efforts by Pashtun diaspora elites sympathetic to the Taliban cause. Across the world — from Russia and India to Germany and Norway — several Pashtun networks have worked to legitimize the Taliban’s rule and influence international opinion in their favor.
- The incompetence and corruption of U.S.-backed Pashtun leaders, notably Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. Both presided over weak, divided governments and, as some observers suggest, may have facilitated the Taliban’s return to power through deliberate inaction or political calculation.
- Financial and political backing from Arab Gulf states, especially Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which provided crucial funding and diplomatic support that strengthened the Taliban’s position.
Together, these forces dismantled an already fragile republic, paving the way for the Taliban’s takeover. The result is a nation caught between foreign manipulation, internal repression, and an uncertain future.
Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule
The situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s totalitarian and extremist regime can best be captured by the few images that manage to emerge from the country:
(A
Taliban security officer stands guard as deported Afghan refugees arrive from
Pakistan at the Spin Boldak border crossing in Kandahar province.)
(Masked Taliban fighter patrol the streets of Afghanistan.)
(Armed
Taliban members have become a common sight across towns and cities, where
criminality and oppression are often carried out by the Taliban themselves.)
(Taliban
loyalists celebrate the fourth anniversary of their takeover of Afghanistan in
Massoud Square, Kabul — August 15, 2025.)
Yet, what is most striking is not what these images show, but what they conceal — the near-total disappearance of Afghan women from public life. The Taliban’s systematic and brutal repression of women is among the most severe in the world, stripping them of basic rights, education, and visibility.
In essence, the Taliban have turned Afghanistan into a landscape of suffering and despair. More than ten million Afghans have been forced to flee their homeland in search of safety, freedom, and dignity.
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