Chronology of the beginning of Taliban's decline in 2025 - Pt. 1
The power of the Taliban has been steadily declining since the beginning of 2025. No other country harbors as many terrorist groups as Afghanistan under Taliban. Their regime is about to collapse. What will likely happen?
To understand what's going on in Afghanistan (and outside of the country), a chronology of the happenings is presented below:
-On 11 December 2024 Khalil Rahman Haqqani, a leading Taliban member, was killed along with four others in an attack in Kabul. He was the minister of refugee and repatriation of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and was responsible for the relocation of global terrorists inside Afghanistan.
-US president Donald Trump stated on 20 January 2025: “If we’re going to pay billions of dollars a year, tell them we’re not going to give them the money unless they give back our military equipment. ... So, we will give them a couple of bucks; we want the military equipment back.”
-This statement obviously made some leading members of the Taliban nervous. On 20 January 2025 it was reported that deputy foreign minister of the Taliban regime, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, urged ‘Islamic Emirate’ leaders to open doors of education for women. He added: “Dear elders, maintain your unity; our success lies in unity and solidarity. The unity of ethnic groups, social classes, and these great scholars who have graduated is the key to our success.”
After making that statement, Stanikzai had to flee the leader Akhundzada to the United Arab Emirates according to media reports. Stanikzai likely has no interest whatsoever in women's education but he is well aware that Taliban's power is fading.
-Then came another very important announcement, which shook up those familiar with Afghanistan's situation: on 23 January 2025 ICC prosecutor Karim Khan confirmed that there were reasonable grounds to suspect Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and chief justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani bore criminal responsibility for crimes against humanity on gender grounds.
-On 30 January 2025, Shelley Moore Capito, the Republican Senator of West Virginia announced on her website that she has “introduced the Stop Funding Global Terrorists Act, legislation that ensures U.S. taxpayer dollars are not flowing to the Taliban—or to any other terrorist organization—through United Nations (UN) funding to Afghanistan.”
-On 11 February 2025 an attack on a Taliban bank killed several Taliban members in Kunduz.
-On 13 February at least one member of Taliban security was killed, and three others were wounded in an explosion in Kabul.
-In first months of 2025 fighters of the National Resistance Front resumed their attacks against the Taliban and killed several Taliban fighters
-On 3 February 2025 British paper the Guardian was one of the first Western papers, which reported about the Taliban internal crisis. It titles its article "Taliban minister ‘forced to flee Afghanistan’ after speech in support of girls’ education".
-On 8 February 2025 it was reported that an unknown hacking group has published thousands of copies of documents from ministries and departments under Taliban control on a website called “Taliban Leaks” and made them publicly available. The hackers claimed to have infiltrated the Taliban’s data center and obtained these documents from there. The documents published on the “Taliban Leaks” website relate to 21 ministries and independent departments under Taliban control, which have been made publicly available for the first time. The leaked documents reveal the recruitment process in Taliban-controlled departments, the ban on the departure of thousands of former government employees by the Taliban, discrimination against ethnic and religious groups by the group, the number of female and foreign prisoners in Taliban prisons, and other discriminatory policies by the group. These documents show that the Taliban have widely suppressed women in different provinces of Afghanistan and have arrested and imprisoned hundreds of women. According to these documents, the Taliban have imprisoned more than 1,376 women, of whom six are foreign women.The total number of prisoners in Taliban prisons has also been revealed. The documents show that 18,800 people are being held in Taliban prisons, including 63 foreign men.
-On 16 February 2025 the Telegraph was the first Western (British) paper reporting on the decline of the Taliban thoroughly. According to the article titled "Taliban in crisis as leadership splits over women’s rights", both Abbas Stanikzai, Taliban deputy foreign minister, and Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban interior minister, have fled Afghanistan and as a response Haibatullah Akhundzada, supreme leader of Afghanistan in the internationally unrecognized Taliban regime, has deployed soldiers to Kabul airport to stop other high-ranking officials from leaving. Akhundzada is called "Taliban's ghost leader" by the Telegraph, as there's only one picture of Akhundzada and the public has never seen him, neither on videos nor in person.
It's also very rare that a Western paper names the Pakistani ISI as Taliban's supporter, which the Telegraph did: "Haqqani, whose ‘Haqqani Network’ has been linked to Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI, remains on the US most-wanted list for orchestrating high-profile attacks against American and Nato forces for nearly two decades."
Then at the very end, without attracting attention, the article mentioned the most important part of the article. It quoted a doctor located in Kabul, who requested anonymity: “We are deeply worried. A split within the Taliban isn’t just a possibility any more; it’s becoming inevitable. The clouds of crisis are gathering, and it’s no longer a question of if, but when. There are rumours that unknown armed men have taken over parts of Baghlan [province], and reports of Taliban fighters abandoning Panjshir [province] are only adding to the fear,”
He added: “Anyone who can replace this current hardline regime and bring back freedom of expression and education for all – including women – would be a welcome relief. We desperately need that change.”
-On 17 February 2025 a major incident happened: An explosion occurred near the Kabul airport, according to local sources. Video footage posted on social media shows the explosion. As always, no further details have been reported by the Taliban about the nature of the explosion and the casualties caused by it.
-On 18 February 2025 it was reported that Rahimullah, a Taliban intelligence officer, was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen in Takhar province, according to local sources. Sources say Rahimullah was the nephew of Rahmatullah, the Taliban’s police chief in Khwaja-Ghar district of Takhar. Before joining the Taliban, Rahimullah reportedly killed four police officers during the previous government and fled with a military tank and weapons to join the insurgency. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, and the Taliban have not commented on the killing. The attack comes amid a rise in assaults on Taliban forces by anti-Taliban armed groups in northern provinces. In Kunduz, at least three attacks in the past 24 hours targeted Taliban positions. Takhar was a resistance stronghold during commander Ahmad Shah Massoud's fight against Taliban.
Taliban and Terrorist Groups
On 13 February 2025 FDD's Long War Journal elaborated the Taliban's support for terrorist groups in an extensive article.
The article discusses a UNSC report issued on 13 February 2025, which supports the claims of Afghans that the Taliban harbours various terrorist groups. This report confirms that the Taliban shelter al-Qaeda operatives in Kabul and elsewhere.
Some main points from the article are:
-The most recent and previous Monitoring Team reports directly contradict the Taliban’s repeated claims that it does not harbor or support foreign terror groups.
-Al Qaeda remains a transnational terror
group that supports jihad across the globe.
-The Haqqani Network, a Foreign Terrorist Organization, is led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist who serves as the Taliban’s deputy emir and the minister of the interior. Although the Haqqanis and the Afghan Taliban are backed by Pakistan, they continue to support the TTP as it attacks the Pakistani state.
According to another article on UNSC's report the Taliban continue to provide shelter and protection to al-Qaeda operatives across Afghanistan, with low-profile members living under the watch of Taliban intelligence in Kabul neighborhoods such as Qala-e-Fathullah, Shahr-e-Naw, and Wazir Akbar Khan, according to a new United Nations Security Council report. According to that report senior al-Qaeda leaders have been relocated to rural strongholds in Sar-e-Pul, Kunar, Ghazni, Logar, and Wardak Provinces.
Thirty-sixth
Report of the United Nations Security Council’s Monitoring Committee
On July 24, 2025, the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) Monitoring Committee published its
36th report concerning terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State (ISIS
or Daesh), al-Qaida, and related groups. Although the report does not
explicitly state it, these groups are influenced by Saudi and Qatari Wahhabi ideology,
often referred to as Takfiri ideology. "Takfiri" is an Islamic term
that describes the act of excommunicating fellow Muslims, specifically when one
Muslim accuses another of apostasy or abandoning Islam.
The report
also mentions terrorist groups operating under the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan, specifically in the section covering Asia—Central and South Asia.
Points 85 to 91 on pages 16 and 17 detail the presence and activities of
Takfiri terrorist groups currently active and receiving training in
Afghanistan.
Below is a direct excerpt from the report:
85. The de
facto authorities in Afghanistan continued to maintain a permissive environment
for a range of terrorist groups, including Al-Qaida and its affiliates, posing
a serious threat to the security of Central Asian and other countries.
86. ISIL-K
continued to represent the most serious threat, both regionally and
internationally. With about 2,000 fighters, ISIL-K continued to recruit both
inside and outside Afghanistan, including among Central Asian States and the
Russian North Caucasus, as well as disaffected fighters from other groups.
There were concerns that some extremist fighters could move from the Syrian
Arab Republic to Afghanistan and further to stage operations against regional
States, firstly in Central Asia. In North Afghanistan and areas close to the
Pakistani borders, ISIL-K indoctrinated children in madrassas, establishing a
suicide training course for minors aged approximately 14 years old.
87. ISIL-K
continued to prioritize attacks on Shia communities, the de facto authorities
and foreigners. Under the leadership of Sanaullah Ghafari (QDi.431), fighters
were scattered across the northern and north-eastern provinces of Afghanistan.
ISIL-K tried to establish operations in the States neighbouring Afghanistan and
globally.
88. The
efforts of the de facto authorities diminished ISIL-K capabilities, but it
continued to operate with relative impunity, exploiting discontent with Taliban
governance. While the leadership remained predominantly Afghan Pashtun, the
rank and file were now mostly of Central Asian origin. Some of the ISIL-K
supporters attempting to cross borders were female, including wives of Central
Asian fighters.
89.
Fighters from Jamaat Ansarullah (not listed), the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU, QDe.010), Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari (KIB, QDe.158) and ETIM/ TIP
were used by the de facto authorities in law enforcement and army units for
providing domestic security, in particular in north Afghanistan.
90. Member
States assessed that Al-Qaida in Afghanistan did not present an immediate
threat for regional States since it possessed limited resources and had been
drastically downsized. Nevertheless, Sayf al-Adl had tasked Abu Jaffar al-Masri
(not listed) and Abu Yasser al-Masri (not listed) to reactivate cells in Iraq,
the Syrian Arab Republic, Libya and Europe. This was indicative of Al-Qaida’s
continued longer-term intent to carry out external operations.
91.
Al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan was described as consisting mainly of fighters
of Arab origin, who had fought with the Taliban in the past. They were spread
across locations in the six provinces of Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar,
Uruzgan and Zabul. There were reported to be several Al-Qaida-related training
sites across Afghanistan and three newer sites were identified, although these
were likely to be small and rudimentary. These sites reportedly trained both
Al-Qaida and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP, QDe.132) fighters.
It is remarkable that the Taliban themselves are not mentioned as terrorist by this report of the UNSC, as the Taliban gained power through terrorist methods and are proud of them and willing to use such methods in their expansion or defensive warfare.
Taliban's Helplessness and Their Response
The Taliban react via a number of harsh measures against the people of Afghanistan:
-the Taliban immediately began to restrict media in Afghanistan by shutting down media channels and arresting Afghan journalists. Taliban raided and shut down Radio Begum, a Kabul-based station focused on women’s issues, on 4 February 2024 as part of a broader crackdown on independent journalism. On 13 February 2025 the Taliban has issued a new directive banning all domestic media organizations from broadcasting political programs until further notice.
-they continued their oppression against women and ethnic minorities
-they strove to getting assistance from foreign countries:
On 13 February 2025 the Taliban yet again visited one of their main owners, namely Qatar:
Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister for economy, met there with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani. Qatar has close ties with the Taliban and also plays a role as a mediator between the Taliban and Western countries. This travel seems to be in order to seek assistance against the pressure.
The Central Bank under the Taliban administration announced that Noor Ahmad Agha, the head of the bank, has traveled to Russia to participate in the international conference on "Cybersecurity in Financial Affairs." The Taliban/Afghanistan bank added in a press release on 17 February 2025 that the conference will be held by the Ural Association in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. According to the bank, the conference will continue from 19 to 21 February 2025.
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legitimacy in Afghanistan"
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Taliban Shot Ashura Mourners In
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