China Seeks to Push India into Supporting the Taliban Against the U.S.
Last Update: October 12, 2025
The intricate web of alliances and rivalries in Central Asia continues to evolve, with the Taliban at the center of a complex geopolitical game involving Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and the United States. Recent developments reveal a landscape marked by resource exploitation, shifting allegiances, and regional tensions.
Afghanistan’s
northern and eastern neighbors—including China, India (with Kashmir lying
between the two), and Pakistan—often meddle in the country’s internal
affairs.
China’s Strategic Moves and Resource Exploitation in Afghanistan
China’s growing influence in Afghanistan shows through its aggressive efforts to take natural resources. Reports say that China is systematically taking Afghanistan’s minerals, often not sharing the profits fairly.
We have written several articles about this:
Taliban sells off Afghanistan's natural resources to enrich themselves
Can the NRF Defeat the Taliban?
Challenging the Narrative: Afghan Resistance in the Face of the Taliban - Part 1
The Chinese government is accused of underpaying for mineral rights, purchasing resources at a fraction of their true worth, and effectively stealing Afghanistan’s resources while backing the Taliban regime. The Taliban leadership, largely illiterate and politically naive, fails to grasp that China’s primary interest is economic gain, not genuine partnership or development.
U.S. Engagement and the Quest for Bagram
On September 13, 2025, U.S. envoys Zalmay Khalilzad and Adam Boehler paid yet another visit to the Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan, ostensibly to negotiate the release of American captives. The Taliban published several pictures of the meeting:
This was Khalilzad’s second such visit under the guise of freeing American captives of the Taliban. The first one was in March 2025, just a few weeks after Donald Trump was elected President of the USA. But behind closed doors, the real objective was likely to regain control of Bagram Airfield—a strategic military asset abandoned by the U.S. in 2021.
Following these negotiations, President Donald Trump publicly reiterated his desire to reclaim Bagram, warning the Taliban that “bad things are going to happen” if the base was not handed back.
Trump’s statements, made in a Truth Social post, underscore the ongoing American interest in re-establishing a foothold in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s control.
Russia and China’s Shared Interests: Opposing U.S. Presence
While the United States seeks to reassert influence, Russia and China are determined to keep it out. Russia fears destabilization of its post-Soviet allies, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which could become destabilized by U.S. military activity. Meanwhile, China is fixated on Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, aiming to dominate resource extraction without sharing. The Taliban and their Pashtun allies provide China with unfettered access to these resources, often without any conditions or regional restrictions.
Khalilzad’s Double Game and Regional Alliances
Khalilzad’s strategy appears to be a delicate balancing act. He ostensibly advocates for U.S. interests but is also perceived as subtly advising the Taliban to maintain regional alliances that preserve their power. His goal seems to be fostering a Taliban proxy that aligns with Washington’s broader regional goals, even as the Taliban’s actual loyalties remain uncertain.
India’s Evolving Role and Increased Engagement
India’s regional position has shifted dramatically. After losing a military confrontation with Pakistan, in May 2025, which saw missile strikes and escalating violence, India has moved to recalibrate its strategy. Pakistan allegedly fought with Chinese military help.
In October 2025, India took part in the 7th Moscow Format Talks on Afghanistan. This is a regional diplomacy forum started by Russia in 2017 to encourage dialogue among Afghanistan’s neighbors and other important countries. The original members were Russia, India, Afghanistan, Iran, China, and Pakistan, with Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan joining later to expand its diplomatic scope.
During this meeting, India joined the statement of the members, which “called unacceptable the attempts by countries to deploy their military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighbouring states, since this does not serve the interests of regional peace and stability”, as published by the Russian foreign ministry.
This marked a significant shift, indicating India’s desire to counterbalance Pakistani influence and U.S. dominance.
Taliban Diplomacy and Pakistan’s Frustration
In a notable development, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India shortly after the Moscow talks on October 9, 2025.
While Muttaqi was still in New Delhi, Pakistan launched a drone attack on Kabul, targeting Pakistani Taliban (TTP) leaders.
This attack suggests growing frustration and suspicion from Pakistan toward the Taliban, which increasingly aligns itself with India and regional powers opposed to Pakistan’s interests.
Pakistan’s anger stems from the Taliban’s perceived disloyalty—alliances with India threaten Pakistan’s strategic aims and regional influence. Pakistan's army even accused India of using Afghanistan as an operational base. Historically, Pakistan was instrumental in supporting the Taliban’s rise, but recent betrayals and shifting allegiances have begun to undermine that relationship. Pakistan now fears that the Taliban’s actions could cause severe harm to its own security and regional stability. Moreover, Taliban's roots are also in Deoband, India, as the Taliban follow the Deobandi branch of Sunni Hanafi Islam. Therefore, Muttaqi also paid a visit to Deoband.
A Tense Future in Afghanistan
The situation remains volatile, with the Taliban caught between competing regional and global interests. While China seeks to exploit Afghanistan’s resources and prevent U.S. influence, India aims to counterbalance Pakistan’s regional dominance and is tricked by China to join its anti-American alliance.
The Taliban, lacking political sophistication, often fall prey to manipulation from more powerful actors. Many increasingly see them as pawns in a larger geopolitical game. They fail to recognize that once Afghanistan’s natural resources are depleted, the country will face severe economic hardship. Blinded by self-interest, the Taliban prioritize personal gain while allowing the Afghan people to go hungry. They have even begun recruiting from the impoverished population to serve their own purposes. Despite these efforts, the situation remains dire. In October 2025, the Taliban-run Department of Information and Culture admitted that nearly 6,000 women and children in Panjshir are suffering from malnutrition—even as the region’s valuable resources, such as Panjshiri emeralds, are being sold at discounted prices under Taliban control.
On the night of October 11 to 12, 2025, fierce fighting broke out between the Taliban and the Pakistani Army. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid claimed that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed. In contrast, Pakistan reported that “dozens of Afghan fighters and Khwarij” were killed during the fighting, and asserted that the Taliban had retreated from the area after abandoning several of their positions.
Pakistan often uses the term Khawarij to describe the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), and in this case, it applies the label to the Afghan Taliban as well. The phrase Fitna al-Hindustan is used to refer to the Balochistan Liberation Front, a separatist group fighting for independence from Pakistan, which Islamabad claims receives backing from India (Hindustan). Interestingly, while Pakistan supports Taliban rule in Afghanistan, it firmly opposes the idea of the group exercising power within its own borders.
The future of Afghanistan is uncertain, but it is clear that the region’s stability hinges on the evolving interactions between these major powers—each pursuing their own interests in a complex dance of diplomacy, conflict, and resource competition.
Anyone who regards the Taliban as an ally is making a mistake—whether it be Russia, India, Pakistan, or the United States. As Caliph Ali ibn Abi Talib (600–661 CE) is often quoted: “A wise enemy is better than a foolish friend.” In the current situation, the Taliban and Khalilzad are simply buying time, while China emerges as the biggest beneficiary by drawing India closer and positioning itself to exploit Afghanistan’s natural resources. Meanwhile, the United States, Pakistan, and once again the Afghan people, end up as the losers in this new game of China and Taliban.
Notes
-Bagram Airfield, once the largest U.S. military base in Afghanistan, is now under Taliban control. It likely receives strategic advice from China on how to operate, symbolizing the shifting balance of power in the region.
-India is home to a significant Pashtun, or Pathan,
population, with communities primarily concentrated in states such as Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Many of these families have lived in the
subcontinent for centuries, gradually blending into local cultures through a
long process of indigenization. While the surname "Khan" is commonly
associated with them, the community is diverse and often indistinguishable from
other Indian Muslim groups. Today, Pashtuns are predominantly Urdu-speaking and
represent the fourth-largest Muslim community in India.
The historical presence of Pashtuns in India is deeply
rooted, stretching back several centuries. One of the most notable figures in
this history is Ahmad Shah Durrani, also known as Ahmad Shah Abdali, the
founder of the Durrani Empire. Between 1748 and 1767, he launched several
invasions into Punjab and northern India. His most renowned triumph was at the
Third Battle of Panipat in 1761, where his forces decisively defeated the
Marathas, dealing a significant blow to their expanding power. However, despite
these military victories, Durrani was unable to establish lasting control over
India. Resistance from the Sikhs, coupled with the sheer vastness of the
territory, limited his ability to consolidate his conquests.
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