Challenging the Narrative: Afghan Resistance in the Face of the Taliban - Part 3

This article is a continuation of the series on 'Challenging the Narrative: Afghan Resistance in the Face of the Taliban.'

Read Part 1: Challenging the Narrative

Read Part 2: Afghanistan's Guerrilla Warfare

Resistance leader Khalid Amiri and his unit during a special operation in the Kunduz Province
during his time as commander of the Afghan National Army

Part 3: The Resistance continues

Guerrilla warfare faces significant challenges today due to various advancements in technology and changes in military tactics, as well as socio-political dynamics. Here are several key reasons why conducting guerrilla warfare has become more difficult:

1. Advanced Surveillance and Intelligence Technology

• Satellites and Drones: Modern armies utilize satellite imagery and drones for real-time surveillance, making it much harder for guerrilla fighters to operate undetected. These technologies can track movements and troop concentrations, diminishing the element of surprise.
• Interception of Communications: Modern communication networks can be easily intercepted. Guerrilla fighters, who often rely on communication for coordination and planning, are at risk of being compromised by advanced interception technologies.
• Geolocation Technology: Advances in technology, such as GPS and geolocation tracking, can easily identify guerrilla positions. This capability poses a significant threat to groups trying to operate covertly.
• Biometric Data: The use of biometric systems by modern armies (such as those left behind by the U.S. in Afghanistan and used by Taliban) can facilitate identification and tracking of individuals associated with guerrilla movements, further complicating the operational landscape for insurgents.

2. Precision Weaponry

• Sophisticated Weapons: Modern military forces are equipped with precision-guided munitions and advanced weapons systems that can accurately target guerrilla units, even in remote or urban settings. This capability reduces the chances of guerrilla tactics being successful against heavily armed conventional forces.

3. Less Reliance on Ground Troops

• Technological Warfare: Increasingly, armies rely on technology, such as drones and automated systems, to engage in combat, making traditional, soldier-centric guerrilla tactics less effective. This technology allows conventional forces to project power with fewer personnel on the ground.

4. Counter-Insurgency Techniques

• Adapted Military Strategies: Modern armies have developed sophisticated counterinsurgency tactics designed to neutralize guerrilla threats. These include winning hearts and minds campaigns, intelligence operations to infiltrate guerrilla groups, and targeted actions against leaders, which can disrupt the organizational structure of guerrilla movements. 
• Collective Punishment: Tactics such as collective punishment based on ethnicity or religion can be used to intimidate and control populations, altering the local support dynamics that guerrilla movements often rely on. This can result in resentment and further division within communities.
• Intimidation and Cohesion: The use of intimidation through collective punishment against ethnic or sectarian groups (e.g., the Pashtun Taliban against Tajiks or Sunnis against Shiites) can further complicate local alliances, creating an environment of fear that discourages support for guerrilla fighters.

5. Targeting Leadership

• Elimination of Leaders: The capability to conduct special operations and targeted killings (often through drone strikes or commando raids) has made it easier for governments to eliminate key guerrilla leaders, leading to disorganization and demoralization within insurgent groups.

6. Societal Manipulation and Drug Dependency

• Socioeconomic Factors: In regions like Afghanistan, the entrenchment of the drug trade has further complicated guerrilla warfare. For instance, the opium trade has not only funded insurgencies but also created social issues such as addiction among the population. This not only destabilizes communities but also limits the potential support for guerrilla movements as local populations may become more focused on survival and addiction rather than resistance. This is comparable to the first Opium War (1839 - 42), which was fought between China and Great Britain, and the second Opium War (1856 - 60), also known as the Arrow War or the Anglo-French War in China, which was fought by Great Britain and France against China.

7. Counter-Propaganda and Information Warfare

• Control Over Information: Governments and conventional forces have become adept at using media and information warfare to counter guerrilla narratives. This includes counter-propaganda efforts that can sway public opinion against insurgent groups, reducing their support base.

8. Complex Urban Environments

• Challenges in Urban Warfare: Modern guerrilla fighters often operate in urban areas, which present complexities such as civilian presence, extensive infrastructure, and crowded conditions. This environment makes guerrilla tactics riskier, as civilian casualties can provoke backlash and support for counterinsurgency efforts.

9. Financial Resources of Modern Armies

• Higher Budget Allocations: Modern armies benefit from substantial financial resources, allowing for extensive training, technology acquisition, and operational planning. Guerrilla factions typically operate with much more limited resources, making it difficult to compete effectively.
• Ammunition Supplies: Guerrilla groups often face challenges in securing logistical routes for weapons and ammunition. Modern surveillance makes these supply routes difficult to maintain, requiring guerrillas to use munitions more economically.

Solutions to the Challenges Faced by Guerrilla Warfare Today

Therefore, a more developed version of modern guerrilla warfare for Afghanistan becomes necessary. In the face of numerous challenges encountered by modern guerrilla fighters, various solutions are available. The contemporary evolution of guerrilla warfare is depicted in films such as Enemy of the State and Undisputed III. These films illustrate the concept of guerrilla combat not just against military forces but also against established states and powerful organizations, which represent significant obstacles today.

A notable exchange in the 1998 film Enemy of the State, between Brill and Robert Dean—who are being pursued by the NSA—highlights strategies for confronting a more potent adversary.

Screenshot from the film showing Brill's gadgets

Dialogue from the film:

Brill: "You know, in guerrilla warfare, you try to use your weaknesses as strengths."

Robert Dean: "Such as?"

Brill: "Well…if they are big and you’re small, then you’re mobile and they’re slow. You’re hidden and they’re exposed. You only fight battles you know you can win. That’s the way the Vietcong did it. You capture the weapons, and you use them against them the next time. That way they’re supplying you. You grow stronger as they grow weaker.”

Another fundamental principle is encapsulated in the motto "Improvise - Adapt - Overcome," popularized by Clint Eastwood’s character, Sergeant Thomas Highway, in the 1986 film Heartbreak Ridge. This motto also features in a notable scene between Jericho "Turbo" Jones, an American fighter, and Yuri Boyka, a Russian fighter, in Undisputed III: Redemption (2010).

Turbo (left) and Boyka (right) at the quarry - "work as training"

Excerpt from their dialogue in Undisputed III: Redemption:

Turbo: "This is some fucking bullshit. This is a fucking joke."

Boyka: "Maybe we can turn this around. We can turn it to our advantage."

Turbo: "Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. How?"

Boyka: "We can say this is work or we can say this is training."

[Turbo and Boyka working in the quarry]

Turbo: "What's wrong with your knee?"

Boyka: "I'm fine."

Turbo: "You don't act like you're fine."

Boyka: "I said I'm fine."

Turbo picks some wild flowers

Turbo: [Picks some wild flowers] "Squeze that in your hand. Take the oil and rub it on your knee. Do it."

Boyka: "How do you know this?2

Turbo: "Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. I know a whole lot of shit, Russia."

From this brief exchange, several lessons emerge:

• Utilize the environment for medicine or as a tool for combat.
• Consider work as a form of training.
• Maintain a straightforward mindset rather than overcomplicating issues.

Afghan resistance fighters have effectively leveraged Afghanistan's mountainous terrain to execute their operations against the Taliban, as illustrated in a video from June 2022:

However, the most critical element in preparing for guerrilla warfare is morale. Morale is paramount, as demonstrated in a video where Ahmad Shah Massoud addresses his troops about confronting their adversary: "Given the changed circumstances, we must now face the enemy. Simply establishing camps will not be enough for us (to launch an attack). (...) Whether or not there is water or food, or if there’s a more suitable resting place, there should be no complaints about hunger during battle. We are not like the communists, who fight merely for sustenance. Do you understand?" In this way, Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was tragically assassinated by the Taliban and al-Qaeda on September 9, 2001, inspired his fighters by boosting their morale.

Buying Time to Gain Power and Support

In summary, the evolution of military technology, enhanced surveillance capabilities, targeted operations, and the complex sociopolitical landscape have made guerrilla warfare increasingly difficult in today's world. These factors limit the effectiveness of classic guerrilla tactics while simultaneously adapting to counter the unique challenges posed by such irregular warfare. Furthermore, the manipulation of societal conditions—such as drug dependency—can undermine potential support, further complicating the guerrilla fighter's mission.

The National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, is the main anti-Taliban group currently operating in Afghanistan, with an estimated 5,000 fighters. In discussions about the NRF's potential to defeat the Taliban, several strategies emerged. The NRF could benefit from forming alliances with other anti-Taliban factions and regional powers to bolster its military and political strength. Gaining the support of the Afghan populace by addressing local grievances is also crucial for legitimacy. Employing guerrilla warfare tactics could help the NRF counter the Taliban's military superiority, while strengthening intelligence operations might provide strategic advantages.

Securing international support, whether through funding or military assistance, is considered vital for enhancing the NRF's capabilities. Effective communication and information campaigns could shift public sentiment against the Taliban, and establishing credible governance in NRF-controlled areas could also build support. Humanitarian efforts may build goodwill among the population, complicating the Taliban's ability to gain support. Additionally, the NRF might pursue diplomatic negotiations, especially as military conflict escalates. An important aspect of their strategy involves buying time to prepare for better conditions for help and support, as they navigate the current challenges.

However, many of these strategies depend on external military or financial support, which is currently lacking. The NRF faces significant challenges, including the Taliban's advanced weaponry, intelligence backing from foreign nations, and difficulties in forming local and international alliances. The Taliban enjoys a considerable military advantage and support from countries like China and Russia, as well as resources left by the U.S.

The NRF's current strength lies in its effective use of media to inform the public. However, this is a challenging task since the Taliban also utilize media extensively, possessing numerous social media channels that allow them to reach a larger audience, particularly among the less educated, who are often targeted by terrorist organizations. Despite these challenges, the NRF has enhanced its presence on social media. By demonstrating effective governance in the regions it controls and providing humanitarian aid, the NRF can build a positive reputation and garner support. This approach mirrors the late Ahmad Shah Massoud's tactics, who established safe zones within Afghanistan for those fleeing the Taliban. He distinguished his group from extremist ideologies and adopted a more moderate stance, which could similarly help the NRF broaden its support base, attracting those disillusioned with the Taliban both within Afghanistan and abroad.

Analyzing Future Strategies for the National Resistance Front (NRF)

In light of the current situation facing the National Resistance Front (NRF), several strategies can be effectively employed to help the NRF gain time to strengthen its power and support. Below are some of the most relevant strategies, along with their explanations:

1. Diplomatic Relations and Alliances
• Application: The NRF can actively oppose the Taliban while seeking alliances with distant countries or regional powers that share its stance against the Taliban, such as India. Building these alliances would yield political and potentially military support, which is vital for isolating the Taliban and establishing legitimacy.
• Impact: This approach not only enhances the NRF's military strength but also bolsters its international political stance, which is essential for long-term viability.
2. Creating an Illusion of Strength
• Application: The NRF should avoid direct confrontations with the Taliban until it has assessed the situation and capitalized on any internal discord, public dissatisfaction, or vulnerabilities within Taliban control.
• Impact: By allowing the Taliban to overextend itself, the NRF can exploit emerging opportunities from internal strife without risking direct military engagements at a disadvantageous time.
3. Addressing Local Grievances
• Application: Rather than focusing exclusively on military goals, the NRF should prioritize resolving local grievances, such as corruption and lack of services. Some local elites or factions may need to be yielded in negotiations to preserve the NRF’s broader goal of regional stability and legitimacy.
• Impact: This strategy can cultivate grassroots support, undermining the Taliban’s claims to legitimacy and reinforcing the NRF's local backing.
4. Backchanneling and Misdirection
• Application: The NRF can leverage misinformation and create distractions while conducting covert operations to fortify its forces, enhance intelligence capabilities, or establish support networks. By appearing to engage in one activity while pursuing critical objectives behind the scenes, the NRF can advance its agenda more effectively.
• Impact: This tactic provides the NRF with the time needed to develop its capabilities while minimizing the Taliban’s ability to preemptively counteract.
5. Information and Propaganda
• Application: Strengthening its media presence and information campaigns can enable the NRF to foster public sentiment against the Taliban while awaiting a suitable moment for increased military operations. Effectively using social media to showcase successes, governance, and humanitarian efforts will help unify local support.
• Impact: As public perceptions change, this could lead to increased recruitment and material support, which are crucial for long-term operational effectiveness.
6. Avoiding Mistakes
• Application: The various resistance groups must be vigilant to avoid missteps that could lead to traps or ambushes. Each error can have dire consequences. Consequently, protecting every fighter and leader, as well as the political structure, is essential.
• Impact: This strategy will enhance their ability to withstand Taliban attacks, maintaining structural integrity while keeping pressures on the Taliban from both within and outside Afghanistan.
7. Cushioning Against Adversity
• Application: The NRF needs to recognize when to withdraw from untenable situations or battles. Rather than entering conflicts with unfavorable odds, the NRF should prioritize force preservation, regrouping, and strategic planning for future engagements. This may involve maintaining hidden resources and capabilities to avoid unnecessary losses.
• Impact: This approach preserves the NRF's fighting capacity for more opportune circumstances, especially as international dynamics evolve.

Conclusion

By implementing these strategies, the NRF can adeptly navigate the challenges posed by the Taliban while fortifying its strength and support base, ultimately evolving into a more formidable resistance movement. Buying time is not merely about sidestepping immediate conflict; it’s about strategically advancing and enhancing capacity, legitimacy, and alliances for sustained success.

Despite the Taliban's military strength and some regional backing, they grapple with issues of legitimacy and authenticity—weaknesses the NRF can exploit. The NRF's focus on local support and asymmetric warfare may present effective resistance opportunities, especially if international support, internal governance, or public sentiment shifts. By strategically buying time, the NRF aims to reinforce its position until favorable conditions for assistance and support can be realized.