Can the NRF defeat the Taliban?

The National Resistance Front (NRF) is currently the main anti-Taliban group, operating inside Afghanistan. Its leader is Ahmad Massoud, son of late Ahmad Shah Massoud (1 Sept. 1953 - 9 Sept. 2001). According to an interview of Ahmad Massoud to CNN's Peter Bergen the NRF has currently 5,000 fighters in Afghanistan.

But before discussing the strength of the NRF vs. the Taliban, let's ask this question ChatGPT.

Ahmad Massoud (in the middle) and his supporters in Panjshir province, Afghanistan, in July 2021, before Kabul fell to the Taliban

The question, which was asked, is "How can NRF defeat Taliban in Afghanistan?"

ChatGPT's summarizes and lists the main points:

The National Resistance Front (NRF) faces significant challenges in its efforts to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan. It can consider a multifaceted strategy to challenge the Taliban in Afghanistan. Success would depend on several key factors. Here are several potential approaches:

1.         Building Alliances: The NRF can seek to form coalitions with other anti-Taliban factions, including former government forces, ethnic militias, and regional powers that may oppose Taliban rule. The alliances with other anti-Taliban groups could be both from within Afghanistan and abroad. Strength in numbers could enhance their military and political leverage.

2.         Local Support: Gaining the support of the Afghan population is crucial. By addressing the needs and grievances of local populations, the NRF can strengthen its base and legitimacy. Focusing on issues like governance, security, and economic development can help foster this support.

3.         Guerrilla Warfare: Considering the relatively weaker position of the NRF compared to the Taliban, employing guerrilla warfare tactics may be effective. This involves hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, and leveraging local knowledge of the terrain. Utilizing guerrilla tactics can make it difficult for the Taliban to maintain control. This would involve hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, and leveraging the terrain to the NRF's advantage.

4.         Intelligence Operations: Strengthening intelligence capabilities to gather information about Taliban movements and strategies can provide the NRF with a strategic edge in planning operations.

5.         International Support: Securing international support, whether through funding, political backing, or military assistance from sympathetic countries, can enhance the NRF's capabilities.

6.         Information Campaigns: Running campaigns to counter Taliban propaganda and communicate the NRF's vision and objectives to the Afghan population can help shift public sentiment.

7.         Focus on Governance: Establishing a credible governance structure in the areas they control can help to differentiate the NRF from the Taliban and win over the population.

8.         Humanitarian Efforts: Engaging in humanitarian efforts and providing aid can help build goodwill among the populace, making it more difficult for the Taliban to gain support.

9.         Negotiation and Diplomacy: While military action is one avenue, pursuing diplomatic channels to negotiate a political solution can also be critical, particularly if the conflict escalates further.

10.       Training and Resources: Building a well-trained and equipped force can improve the NRF's effectiveness in combat against the Taliban.

It's important to note that the situation in Afghanistan is complex, and many factors influence the dynamics of power. The NRF's strategy would need to be adaptable and responsive to changing circumstances on the ground.

Majority of points, namely 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10 can only be done, if there is a military power to help the NRF, financially or militarily, which is currently not the case.

Point 3: is difficult for the resistance to carry out. According to insider sources Chinese intelligence helped Taliban to localize a number of resistance fighters in the past. The Taliban possess advanced weapons, which are left-overs of the USA. Taliban take revenge on the families of resistance fighters and non-combatants to put pressure on the fighters. While young non-Pashtun men get executed, their wives and daughters get raped by Taliban fighters.

Point 4: the NRF lacks the technical capabilities and know-how for intelligence operations. They are on their own, while the Taliban enjoy the help from other countries and organizations. 

Point 5: it is difficult for the NRF to find allies.

-Russia is still traumatized by the consequences of the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), which resulted in the dissolving of the Soviet Union. Being uncertain about the consequences of the resistance against the Taliban, it currently prefers to have Taliban as allies instead of enemies. Nonetheless, Russia must realize finally that having the Taliban as allies is impossible for the long-term. Terrorist attacks in Russia have already increased significantly, as well as attacks in other countries in the region and the West. The main reason is the fact that the Taliban are now in power in Afghanistan.

-China, on the other hand, is a country, which wants allies, no matter the costs, and Afghanistan’s national resources. The country doesn’t care about terrorism, as long as it doesn’t affect them. Rustam Ali Seerat analyses in his article on China-Taliban relationship: "China's core interests in Afghanistan remain constant despite the Taliban regime's return to power. These interests can be categorized into three pillars: connectivity, security, and access to resources such as minerals, oil, and gas."

He adds in the same article: "In September 2023, China's new ambassador presented credentials to the acting Taliban Prime Minister. On Tuesday, January 30th, China's President Xi Jinping received ambassadorial credentials from the Taliban envoy to Beijing appointed by the interim Taliban administration."

Taliban have unlimited access to the natural resources of Afghanistan. By selling them to China, they have the financial means to afford a long war. They can pay for the infrastructure, feed their fighters and pay foreign terrorists to fight for them.

-The U.S. government is supporting the Taliban financially and have left weapons worth billions of dollars.

-European countries follow the USA in everything they demand from them.

Regional countries are weak and either follow one of the three main powers, Russia, China, and USA or prefer the Taliban instead of the Afghan Resistance against them. Out of fear, they prefer things to stay simple and avoid any complications.

Many Muslim countries, in particular the Arab and Central Asian countries, don’t stop and even strengthen the Taliban, as they follow the same interpretation as them. They rather develop their influence on them and trade with them. 

Point 1 and 2:

The first and second points can currently be refuted as well: On several occasions, U.S. president Joe Biden claimed that Afghans did not fight enough against Taliban. Two of Biden’s main claims have been disproved already in a previous article on this blog.

Are Afghan civilians capable to take up arms against Taliban, who are not supported by most of Islamic terrorist groups, as well as many regional and Arab countries? A large number of Afghanistan’s population hate the Taliban but local allies outside of the resistance forces currently don’t exist. The reason is that the people of Afghanistan are not capable of taking arms against a professional terrorist group, supported by other professional terrorist groups and countries with a similar ideology.

Point 6: The NRF's current strength lies in its effective use of media to inform the public. However, this is a challenging task since the Taliban also utilize media extensively, possessing numerous social media channels that allow them to reach a larger audience, particularly among the less educated, who are often targeted by terrorist organizations. Despite these challenges, the NRF has enhanced its presence on social media. By demonstrating effective governance in the regions it controls and providing humanitarian aid, the NRF can build a positive reputation and garner support. This approach mirrors the late Ahmad Shah Massoud's tactics, who established safe zones within Afghanistan for those fleeing the Taliban. He distinguished his group from extremist ideologies and adopted a more moderate stance, which could similarly help the NRF broaden its support base, attracting those disillusioned with the Taliban both within Afghanistan and abroad.

Concerning outside of Afghanistan people should be made aware that the Taliban are and remain a terrorist group. Some might ask the question, as to how a simple-minded terrorist group like Taliban could perpetuate sophisticated terrorist attacks in foreign Western countries? The answer is very simple. The Taliban get help from foreign intelligence and terrorist organizations. Al-Qaeda, which is still a close ally of the Taliban, had the capabilities to kill thousands of people in the West, which they did.

Ahmad Massoud has a close friendship with influencer and former Navy Seal, Shawn Ryan. To him he gave an extensive interview, which can be watched on YouTube. Michael McCaul was the first high ranking U.S. representative to officially label the Taliban as a terrorist group after the occupation of Afghanistan by that group. Shawn Ryan is credited in McCaul's post for bringing attention to the issue of Afghanistan.

 

Conclusion 

-The Taliban has a significant military advantage, having taken control of Afghanistan in August 2021. They possess a well-organized military structure, control vast territories, and have received resources and weapons, particularly from the equipment left behind by USA. Furthermore, the Taliban has a degree of popular support in certain regions, especially among those who align with their strict interpretation of Islamic law and tribal laws, called Pashtunwali. Those regions are the the Pashtun areas in the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Moreover, the Taliban receives intelligence support and combat training by foreign intelligence and terrorist groups and diplomatic support from allied countries etc. Taliban have Pashtun pressure groups in many countries, who propagate for them. Strong pressure groups are in the UK, USA, Norway and Germany. They pressure the respective national governments to give humanitarian aid to organizations controlled by the Taliban and to remove them from their terrorist lists. Despite of all of this, the Taliban lack legitimacy, legitimacy and authenticity. Their programs are prescribed by foreign intelligence, which facilitated Taliban's gaining power. 

But this is also their weakness, which can enable the NRF to defeat them, as the Taliban depend on foreign help for each of their moves. The NRF represents a resistance movement that draws on local support and has the potential for asymmetric warfare. The dynamics between the two can change based on numerous factors, including international support, internal governance issues, and public sentiment.